Potential Coffee Distribution in a Central-Western Region of Mexico

Abstract

Currently, there is a world coffee production crisis which has been attributed, among other factors, to the COVID-19 pandemic that affected the development of productive agricultural activities. In this scenario, Mexico is in a declining situation by showing a reduction in coffee production areas in recent years. Therefore, it is necessary to promote actions that contribute to the recovery of the resource, particularly in the states with agricultural potential. In the present work, the potentially suitable areas for coffee cultivation are identified through the application of tools that allow for characterizing the biophysical conditions that define the current spatial distribution and, from the analysis of these characteristics, generate a Potential Distribution Model (PDM) of the suitable zones for coffee production. The methodology was developed through the application of the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm, starting with the collection and preparation of coffee presence records, followed by a correlation analysis and identification of significant variables, the subsequent execution of the model in various configurations to observe the contribution of each variable through a jackknife test, and finally validation of the model with a random sample selection of 30%, to achieve an AUC of 0.98 and TSS of 0.96. The present model was able to identify and quantify the environmentally suitable zones for coffee production, highlighting the regions with ideal potential for the specie. These results are intended to serve as a basis for the generation of planning strategies aimed at managing, improving, and increasing coffee production areas, as well as being used to establish biological corridors to promote biodiversity, conservation, and alternative economic activities such as tourism and furthermore for future work on the analysis of production scenarios and impacts of climate change. It is concluded that 30% of Nayarit’s territory has ideal conditions for coffee cultivation, especially the region delimited by the municipalities of Tepic and Xalisco, the eastern zone of Compostela, and the southwest of San Blas, which should be considered as a Priority Conservation Area (APC) for coffee cultivation in the state.