A Transdisciplinary Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy: The Most Affected Country in Europe

Abstract

As of 27 March 2020, 199 countries and territories and one international conveyance are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of the same date, Italy represents the third country worldwide in total number of cases and the first one in total number of deaths. The purpose of this study is to analyse the Italian case and identify key problem questions and lessons learned from the Italian experience. The study initially provides a general overview of the country’s characteristics and health care system, followed by a detailed description of the Italian epidemiological picture regarding COVID-19. Afterwards, all non-pharmaceutical measures adopted by the Government against COVID-19 are presented in chronological order. The study explores some estimations of the economic impact of the epidemic, as well as its implications for society, lifestyle, and social media reactions. Finally, the study refers to two types of mathematical models to predict the evolution of the spread of COVID-19 disease. Having considered all of the above-mentioned aspects, some significant issues can be raised, including the following: (1) the available epidemiological data presents some gaps and potential biases; (2) mathematical models always come with high levels of uncertainty; (3) the high number of deaths should be interpreted in light of the national demographic context; and (4) the long-term management of the epidemic remains an open question. In conclusion, the Italian experience definitely highlights the importance of preparedness and early action, effective interventions and risk communication.