Urban Seismic Risk Assessment by Integrating Direct Economic Loss and Loss of Statistical Life: An Empirical Study in Xiamen, China

Abstract

The growing densities of human and economic activities in cities lead to more severe consequences when a catastrophe such as an earthquake occurs. This study on urban seismic risk evaluation is carried out from the perspective of the direct loss caused by disasters in urban areas, including the measurement of both the expected direct economic loss and loss of life in the face of characteristic earthquakes. Aiming to estimate, quantify and visualize the earthquake risk in each unit of urban space, this research proposes to assess urban seismic risk by integrating the direct economic loss and the loss of statistical life in a disaster, with consideration of diverse earthquake frequencies. Empirical research of the proposed assessment framework and corresponding models is then conducted to measure urban seismic risk in Xiamen, China. Key findings of the case study include the expected direct economic losses and the expected number of deaths in three characteristic earthquakes, their estimated spatial distributions, the average loss of the value of a statistical life (VSL) of one average local resident and the overall seismic risk distributions in Xiamen.