Improving Aviation Safety through Modeling Accident Risk Assessment of Runway

Abstract

The exponential increase in aviation activity and air traffic in recent decades has raised several public health issues. One of the critical public health concerns is runway safety and the increasing demand for airports without accidents. In addition to threatening human lives, runway accidents are often associated with severe environmental and pollution consequences. In this study, a three-step approach is used for runway risk assessment considering probability, location, and consequences of accidents through advanced statistical methods. This study proposes novel models for the implementation of these three steps in Iran. Data on runway excursion accidents were collected from several countries with similar air accident rates. The proposed models empower engineers to advance an accurate assessment of the accident probability and safety assessment of airports. For in-service airports, it is possible to assess existing runways to remove obstacles close to runways if necessary. Also, the proposed models can be used for preliminary evaluations of developing existing airports and the construction of new runways.