Analysis of Emergency Department Visits and Hospital Activity during Influenza Season, COVID-19 Epidemic, and Lockdown Periods in View of Managing a Future Disaster Risk: A Multicenter Observational Study

Abstract

ED-visits and through-ED admissions to medical/surgical wards (MSW) and intensive care unit (ICU) during influenza, COVID-19 and lockdown periods were evaluated in a four-hospital prospective observational study from November 2018 to March 2020. ED visit characteristics and main diagnostic categories were assessed. Analysis of 368,262 ED-visits highlighted a significantly increasing trend in ED-visits during influenza followed by a significantly decreasing trend after lockdown. For MSW-admissions, a pattern of growth during influenza was followed by a fall that began during COVID-19 pandemic and intensified during the lockdown. For ICU-admissions, a significant rise during the COVID-19 pandemic was followed by diminution during the lockdown period. During lockdown, significantly diminishing trends were shown for all diagnostic categories (between −40.8% and −73.6%), except influenza-like illness/COVID cases (+31.6%), Pulmonary embolism/deep vein thrombosis (+33.5%) and frequent users (+188.0%). The present study confirms an increase in demand during the influenza epidemic and during the initial phase of the COVID-19 epidemic, but a drop in activity during the lockdown, mainly related to non-COVID conditions. Syndromic surveillance of ILI cases in ED is a tool for monitoring influenza and COVID-19, and it can predict ED activity and the need for MSW and ICU beds.