Evaluation of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol: A Mixed Method Natural Experiment in Scotland

Abstract

In May 2018, Scotland became the first country in the world to implement minimum unit pricing (MUP) for all alcoholic drinks sold in licensed premises in Scotland. The use of a Sunset Clause in the MUP legislation was a factor in successfully resisting legal challenges by indicating that the final decision on a novel policy would depend on its impact. An overarching evaluation has been designed and the results will provide important evidence to inform the parliamentary vote on the future of MUP in Scotland. The evaluation uses a mixed methods portfolio of in-house, commissioned, and separately funded studies to assess the impact of MUP across multiple intended and unintended outcomes related to compliance, the alcoholic drinks industry, consumption, and health and social harms. Quantitative studies to measure impact use a suitable control where feasible. Qualitative studies assess impact and provide an understanding of the lived experience and mechanism of change for key sub-groups. As well as providing important evidence to inform the parliamentary vote, adding to the international evidence on impact and experience of alcohol pricing policy across a broad range of outcomes, this approach to evaluating novel policy interventions may provide guidance for future policy innovations.