Tsunami Risk Change Analysis for Qidong County of China Based on Land Use Classification

Abstract

Tsunamis can cause high numbers of casualties, as well as direct and indirect economic losses to coastal regions. The huge destructiveness of tsunamis requires us to study tsunami risk and its temporal change. We adopt the tsunami scenarios of the Ryukyu Trench as an example to analyze the temporal change in tsunami risk. According to the tsunami numerical model results, the tsunami inundation in the worst tsunami scenario covered an area of 82.83 km2. Satellite data including Landsat 8 images from July 2013 and Landsat 9 images from March 2022 were used with the random forest (RF) method to analyze land use and tsunami vulnerability in 2013 and 2022. The tsunami risk and its temporal change were analyzed by integrating tsunami hazard and tsunami vulnerability. The tsunami risk change analysis results show that the area of tsunami risk level 1 increased by 4.57 km2, and the area of tsunami risk level 4 decreased by 7.31 km2. By analyzing changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and tsunami risk, we concluded that the expansion of constructed land and the increase in coastal population were responsible for the increase in tsunami risk. The results of tsunami risk change analysis will help us understand the current tsunami risk and predict possible future risk change. In addition, it is necessary to prepare tsunami prevention measures in advance and produce tsunami emergency response plans for Qidong County and other regions under potential tsunami threat.