Quantitative Assessment Model for the Effects of Drought Mitigation on Regional Agriculture Based on an Expectation Index of Drought Mitigation Effects

Abstract

The extent of water deficit and drought loss mitigation, through human activities such as defense, mitigation, and resistance to drought risk, is revealed by its effects on agriculture. To analyze the distribution regularities of the effects of drought mitigation on agriculture and to provide better insight on drought mitigation actions, an expectation index of drought mitigation effects (EDRE) was formulated based on the definitions of the drought system. The crop yield when no drought mitigation measures were implemented was calculated via tests and simulations, and expectations of drought-related yield loss with and without drought mitigation measures (EDRL and EDRM, respectively) were calculated in the drought loss risk assessment model. Then, a quantitative assessment model for the effects of drought mitigation on regional agriculture was built. Using a case study from the Huaibei Plain in the Anhui Province of China, it was found that drought mitigation effects decrease gradually from North to South. Moreover, small values of drought mitigation effects correspond to large EDRM and small EDRL values. It is necessary to urgently improve drought mitigation measures in locations where EDRE is small and EDRL is large, or where EDRE is small and EDRM is large. The main drought mitigation measures were identified through correlation analysis. Additionally, the adaptation of drought mitigation measures to local conditions leads to a spatial distribution regularity.