Sensitivity Analysis for Performance Evaluation of a Real Water Distribution System by a Pressure Driven Analysis Approach and Artificial Intelligence Method

Abstract

Proper performance of water distribution networks (WDNs) plays a vital role in customer satisfaction. The aim of this study is to conduct a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the behavior of WDNs analyzed by a pressure-driven analysis (PDA) approach and the classification technique by using an appropriate artificial neural network, namely the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). For this purpose, this study is divided into four distinct steps. In the first and second steps, a real network has been analyzed by using a Pressure-Driven Analysis approach (PDA) to obtain the pressure, and α coefficient, the percentage of supplied flow. The analysis has been performed by using three different values of the design peak coefficient k*. In the third step, the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) has been applied and several binary models have been constructed. The analysis has been carried out by using input data, including the real topology of the network and the base demand necessary to satisfy requests of users in average conditions and by assuming that the demand in each single one-hour time step depends on a peak coefficient. Finally, the results obtained from the PDA hydraulic analysis and those obtained by using them in the GMDH algorithm have been compared and sensitivity analysis has been carried out. The innovation of the study is to demonstrate that the input parameters adopted in the design are correct. The analysis confirms that the GMDH algorithm gives proper results for this case study and the results are stable also when the value of each k*, characteristic of a different time hour step, varies in an admissible technical range. It was confirmed that the results obtained by using the PDA approach, analyzed by using a GMDH-type neural network, can provide higher performance sufficiency in the evaluation of WDNs.