Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change, Coal Mining and Soil and Water Conservation on Streamflow in a Coal Mining Concentrated Watershed on the Loess Plateau, China

Abstract

The streamflow has declined significantly in the coal mining concentrated watershed of the Loess Plateau, China, since the 1970s. Quantifying the impact of climate change, coal mining and soil and water conservation (SWC), which are mainly human activities, on streamflow is essential not only for understanding the mechanism of hydrological response, but also for water resource management in the catchment. In this study, the trend of annual streamflow series by Mann-Kendall test has been analyzed, and years showing abrupt changes have been detected using the cumulative anomaly curves and Pettitt test. The contribution of climate change, coal mining and SWC on streamflow has been separated with the monthly water-balance model (MWBM) and field investigation. The results showed: (1) The streamflow had an statistically significant downward trend during 1955–2013; (2) The two break points were in 1979 and 1996; (3) Relative to the baseline period, i.e., 1955–1978, the mean annual streamflow reduction in 1979–1996 was mainly affected by climate change, which was responsible for a decreased annual streamflow of 12.70 mm, for 70.95%, while coal mining and SWC resulted in a runoff reduction of 2.15 mm, 12.01% and 3.05mm, 17.04%, respectively; (4) In a recent period, i.e., 1997–2013, the impact of coal mining on streamflow reduction was dominant, reaching 29.88 mm, 54.24%. At the same time, the declining mean annual streamflow induced through climate change and SWC were 13.01 mm, 23.62% and 12.20 mm, 22.14%, respectively.