Driving Factors and Decoupling Effects of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agriculture in Southwest China

Abstract

In light of the growing demand for green and low-carbon development, the advancement of low-carbon agriculture in alignment with China’s specific national circumstances is imminent. Given this urgency, the accounting of non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China’s agricultural system is still in the process of continuous research and improvement. Therefore, in this paper, we present an account of agricultural non-CO2 GHG emissions in Southwest China from 1995 to 2021, based on the carbon emission coefficient method. Furthermore, we explore the extent of the influence of the drivers and the relationship with economic development, utilizing the Stochastic Impact of Regression of Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model and the Tapio model. We observe a general trend of increasing and then decreasing non-CO2 GHG emissions from agriculture in the Southwest region, with a pattern of higher in the center and lower in the east and west. Economic, demographic, structural, and technological levels show different degrees of impact in different provinces, favoring the development of targeted agricultural planning policies in each region. For the majority of the study period, there was a weak or strong decoupling between economic growth and GHG emissions. Finally, recommendations are made to promote low-carbon agricultural development in Southwest China, providing a database and policy support to clarify the GHG contribution of the agricultural system.