Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics and Mitigation Pathways in the Vehicle Fuel Cycle: A Case Study of Guangdong Province

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of vehicle ownership, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Guangdong Province, China, from 2020 to 2035 under different scenarios. Key findings highlight the province’s pursuit of carbon peak goals and provide valuable insights into strategies to achieve them. Vehicle ownership in Guangdong is projected to exceed 48 million by 2035, which represents a doubling from 2020. Under both scenarios, internal combustion engine vehicle ownership will peak around 2030 and then gradually decline, while under the enhanced scenario, electric vehicle ownership will exceed 40% by 2035. Enhanced vehicle energy efficiency and reduced annual mileage will lead to a 17% reduction in gasoline and diesel consumption by 2035 in both scenarios. At the same time, there will be a substantial five- to six-fold increase in electricity consumption for vehicles compared to 2020. Both scenarios peak in carbon emissions before 2030, with the enhanced scenario achieving this peak a year earlier. The enhanced scenario outperforms the baseline, reducing carbon emissions by about 21.2% from the peak and 8% relative to 2020. Pure electric vehicles exhibit a significant advantage in reducing carbon emissions per vehicle compared to their internal combustion engine counterparts. Encouraging new energy vehicles, especially pure electric ones, accelerates the carbon emissions peak and lowers overall peak emissions. Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles, reducing per-vehicle fuel consumption and annual average mileage, and optimizing transportation modes are crucial for carbon peaking from the vehicle fuel cycle. Policy recommendations focus on promoting new energy vehicles, optimizing transportation, and advancing research and technology.