Dynamic Changes and Influencing Factors Analysis of Groundwater Icings in the Permafrost Region in Central Sakha (Yakutia) Republic under Modern Climatic Conditions

Abstract

In central Sakha (Yakutia) Republic, groundwater icings, primarily formed by intrapermafrost water, are less prone to contamination and serve as a stable freshwater resource. The periodic growth of icings threatens infrastructure such as roads, railways, and bridges in permafrost areas. Therefore, research in this field has become urgently necessary. This study aims to analyze the impacts of various factors on the scale of icing formation using Landsat satellite data, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)/GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) data, Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data, and field observation results. The results showed that the surface area of icings in the study area showed an overall increasing trend from 2002 to 2022, with an average growth rate of 0.06 km2/year. Suprapermafrost water and intrapermafrost water are the main sources of icings in the study area. The total Groundwater Storage Anomaly (GWSA) values from October to April showed a strong correlation with the maximum icing areas. Icings fed by suprapermafrost water were influenced by precipitation in early autumn, while those fed by intrapermafrost water were more affected by talik size and distribution. Climate warming contributed to the degradation of the continuous permafrost covering an area of 166 km2 to discontinuous permafrost, releasing additional groundwater. This may also be one of the reasons for the observed increasing trend in icing areas. This study can provide valuable insights into water resource management and infrastructure construction in permafrost regions.