Simulation of China’s Carbon Peak Path Based on Random Forest and Sparrow Search Algorithm—Long Short-Term Memory

Abstract

How to decouple economic growth from carbon dioxide emissions and achieve low-carbon transformation of the Chinese economy has become an urgent problem that needs to be solved. Firstly, the Tapio index is used to identify China’s carbon peak status, and then the Technology Choice Index (TCI) and economic complexity are introduced into the comprehensive factor analysis framework for carbon dioxide emissions. Key influencing factors are identified using random forest and ridge regression. On this basis, a novel sparrow search algorithm–long short-term memory (SSA-LSTM) model which has more prediction accuracy compared with past studies is constructed to predict the dynamic evolution trend of carbon dioxide emissions, and in combination with scenario analysis, the path towards the carbon peak is simulated. The following conclusions are obtained: The benchmark scenario peaks in 2031, with a peak of 12.346 billion tons, and the low-carbon scenario peaks in 2030, with a peak of 11.962 billion tons. The extensive scenario peaks in 2037, with a peak of 13.291 billion tons. Under six scenarios, it can be concluded that energy intensity is the key factor in reducing the peak. These research results provide theoretical support for decision-makers to formulate emission reduction policies and adjust the carbon peak path.