Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios

Author:

Rakhmatova Natella1,Nishonov Bakhriddin E.12ORCID,Kholmatjanov Bakhtiyar M.12ORCID,Rakhmatova Valeriya3,Toderich Kristina N.4ORCID,Khasankhanova Gulchekhra M.5,Shardakova Lyudmila1,Khujanazarov Temur6ORCID,Ungalov Akmal N.7,Belikov Dmitry A.8ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Agency of Hydrometeorological Service of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent 100052, Uzbekistan

2. Faculty of Hydrometeorology, National University of Uzbekistan, Tashkent 100174, Uzbekistan

3. Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Japan

4. Graduate School of Bioresources, Mie University, Mie 514-0102, Japan

5. Design and Research UZGIP Institute, Tashkent 100100, Uzbekistan

6. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji 611-0011, Japan

7. Department of Strategic Planning and Methodology, Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent 100174, Uzbekistan

8. Center for Environmental Remote Sensing, Chiba University, Chiba 263-8522, Japan

Abstract

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world’s largest arid zone. This study examines the evolving intensity of climate change and drought events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5 and CMIP6) simulated under the Representative Concentration Pathway and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP and SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates of increase in temperature and precipitation under the RCPs and SSPs. Projected temperature increases are expected to reach up to 2–2.5 °C under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an increase is projected of 2–3 °C in monthly mean temperatures throughout the year (SSP1-2.6), and a more pronounced increase in summer up to 3–4 °C (SSP2-4.5) and 4–6 °C (SSP3-7.0), with a marked contrast in conditions between the mountainous and desert regions of Uzbekistan. Regional changes in precipitation over the study periods show relatively little variability, except for FD, where notable trends are found. Under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the increase in precipitation is relatively modest, whereas the changes in SSP3-7.0 are more substantial, with some regions experiencing variations of up to 10–20 mm per period. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based on the projected temperature and precipitation, provides an estimate of future drought trends. Our results show increasing aridity under all scenarios by mid-century, with longer-term projections indicating stabilization around different SPEI values by 2100: RCP2.6 and SSP1-1.9 stabilize around −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0 stabilize around −1.5; while RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios project values of −2 or less by 2100. Notable differences in the SPEI index are found between lowland and foothill regions. In view of Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance on agriculture and irrigation, which are the sectors that are expected to be mostly affected by climate change, our study provides a scientific basis for informed policy decision-making. This includes various aspects such as planning and management water resources, as well as the broader socioeconomic development of the country.

Funder

Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development

Japan Science and Technology Agency

Japan International Cooperation Agency

Innovative Development Agency under Ministry of Higher Education, Science and Innovation of the Republic of Uzbekistan

Publisher

MDPI AG

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