Time Series Analysis of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions and Air Quality on the Number of Medical Visits for Hypertension in Haikou City, China

Abstract

Meteorological conditions and air quality are important environmental factors in the occurrence and development of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) such as hypertension. The aim of this study was to take Haikou City, located on the tropical edge, as the research area and to analyze the exposure–response relationship and lag effect between its meteorological conditions, air quality, and the number of hypertensive patients. Using the data from the hypertension outpatient department of Hainan Provincial People’s Hospital from 2016 to 2018, together with meteorological data and air quality data, a distributed lag nonlinear model based on the nested generalized addition model of meteorological element base variables was established. The results showed that the impact of temperature on the risk of hypertension was mainly due to the cold effect, which was associated with high risk, with a lag of 1–10 days. When the temperature dropped to 10 °C, the cumulative effect on the risk of hypertension of relative risk (RR) reached its highest value on the day the low temperature occurred (RR was 2.30 and the 95% confidence interval was 1.723~3.061), passing the test with a significance level of 0.05. This result indicated that efforts should be made to strengthen the prevention of hypertension under low-temperature conditions and the prediction and early warning of disease risks. The impact of the air-quality effect (the environmental Air Quality Index was selected as an indicator) on the risk of hypertension was mainly characterized by a low air-quality effect, with a lag effect of 0–8 days. When the risk reached approximately 124, the RR was highest (RR was 1.63 and the 95% confidence interval was 1.104~2.408), passing the test with a significance level of 0.05. The research results can provide technical support for conducting medical meteorological forecasting, early warning, and services for hypertension. A joint work and research mechanism among multiple departments such as meteorology and medical health should be established to improve the level of medical and health care, optimize the allocation of social resources, and develop targeted prevention and control strategies to reduce the health and economic burden of hypertension.