Application of Statistical Learning Algorithms in Thermal Stress Assessment in Comparison with the Expert Judgment Inherent to the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Abstract

This study concerns the application of statistical learning (SL) in thermal stress assessment compared to the results accomplished by an international expert group when developing the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The performance of diverse SL algorithms in predicting UTCI equivalent temperatures and in thermal stress assessment was assessed by root mean squared errors (RMSE) and Cohen’s kappa. A total of 48 predictors formed by 12 variables at four consecutive 30 min intervals were obtained as the output of an advanced human thermoregulation model, calculated for 105,642 conditions from extreme cold to extreme heat. Random forests and k-nearest neighbors closely predicted UTCI equivalent temperatures with an RMSE about 3 °C. However, clustering applied after dimension reduction (principal component analysis and t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding) was inadequate for thermal stress assessment, showing low to fair agreement with the UTCI stress categories (Cohen’s kappa < 0.4). The findings of this study will inform the purposeful application of SL in thermal stress assessment, where they will support the biometeorological expert.