Dew and Rain Evolution from Climate Change in Semi-Arid South-Western Madagascar between 1991 and 2033 (Extrapolated)

Abstract

In the context of global warming and the increasing scarcity of fresh water resources, it becomes significant to evaluate the contribution and evolution of non-rainfall waters such as dew. This study therefore aims to evaluate the relative dew and rain contributions in three sites of south-western of Madagascar (Ifaty, Toliara, and Andremba), a semi-arid region which suffers from a strong water deficit. The studied period is 1/1991–7/2023, with extrapolation to 7/2033. Dew is calculated from meteo data by using a well-established energy model. The extrapolation of dew and rain follows an artificial neural network approach. It is found that dew forms regularly (2–3 days on average between events), in contrast to rain (10–15 days). The evolutions of dew and rain are similar, with an increase from 1991 to 2000, a decrease up to 2020 and a further increase until 2033. These oscillations follow the Indian Ocean dipole variations and should be influenced by climate change. Dew contributions to the water balance remain modest on a yearly basis (3–4%) but is important during the dry season (Apr.–Oct.), up to 30%. Dew therefore appears to be a reliable and sustainable resource for plants, small animals, and the population, especially during droughts.