Projected Changes of Wind Energy Input to Surface Waves in the North Indian Ocean Based on CMIP6

Abstract

This paper explores the effects of climate change on the wind energy input (WEI) to the surface waves (SWs) in the northern Indian Ocean (NIO), a region with great potential for green renewable energy from waves and wind. We used the newly developed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model data to predict the spatiotemporal variations of the WEI to the SW. We found that, under the global warming scenario, the WEI to the SWs decreased significantly in most of the NIO, and it will drop by 18% to 27% in the central and southern regions by the end of the 21st century under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. However, the WEI to the SWs increased in the Red Sea, Persian Gulf, northwestern Arabian Sea, and northern Bay of Bengal, with the largest increase in the Persian Gulf region (up to 27%). We also examined the interannual and interdecadal variability characteristics of the WEI to the SW after the accumulation of the whole study region and found that it showed a long-term increasing trend only under the SSP1–2.6 scenario, while it showed a significant decreasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, we show that the WEI to the SWs in the Indian Ocean mainly occurs in summer, followed by winter.