Mediating Effect of the Stay-at-Home Order on the Association between Mobility, Weather, and COVID-19 Infection and Mortality in Indiana and Kentucky: March to May 2020

Author:

Shakib Shaminul H.1ORCID,Little Bert B.12ORCID,Karimi Seyed12,McKinney William Paul3ORCID,Goldsby Michael1,Kong Maiying2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Health Management and Systems Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA

2. Department of Bioinformatics and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA

3. Department of Health Promotion and Behavioral Sciences, School of Public Health and Information Sciences, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA

Abstract

(1) Background: The association of COVID-19 infection and mortality with mobility and weather in Indiana and Kentucky was compared for the period from 1 March to 15 May 2020. (2) Methods: The risk of COVID-19 infection and mortality was evaluated using Cox regressions with the following covariates: mobility (retail/recreation, grocery/pharmacy, and workplace), weather (precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, ultraviolet [UV] index), and metropolitan status. (3) Results: A higher maximum temperature (adjusted hazard ratioinfection (aHRi) = 1.01; adjusted hazard ratiodeath (aHRd) = 1.001), metropolitan status (aHRi = 1.12; aHRd = 2.05), and a higher minimum temperature (aHRi = 1.01) were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 infection and/or mortality. Protection against COVID-19 infection and/or mortality was associated with retail/recreation (aHRi = 0.97; aHRd = 0.937), grocery/pharmacy (aHRi = 0.991; aHRd = 0.992), workplace (aHRi = 0.99; aHRd = 0.965), precipitation (aHRi = 0.999; aHRd = 0.9978), UV index (aHRi = 0.37; aHRd = 0.748), and a higher minimum temperature (aHRd = 0.994). COVID-19 infection (aHRi = 1.18) and mortality (aHRd = 1.59) risks were higher in Indiana compared to Kentucky. (4) Conclusions: COVID-19 infection and mortality were 18% and 59% more likely among Indiana residents compared to Kentucky residents, respectively. This may be attributed to variations in stay-at-home order compliance and enforcement between Indiana and Kentucky.

Publisher

MDPI AG

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