ECMWF Lightning Forecast in Mainland Portugal during Four Fire Seasons

Author:

Campos Cátia1,Couto Flavio T.12,Santos Filippe L. M.1ORCID,Rio João3ORCID,Ferreira Teresa3,Salgado Rui12ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Earth Remote Sensing Laboratory (EaRS Lab), Institute of Earth Sciences—ICT, Instituto de Investigação e Formação Avançada—IIFA, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal

2. Department of Physics, School of Science and Technology, University of Évora, Rua Romão Ramalho 59, 7000-671 Évora, Portugal

3. Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere, I.P., Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisbon, Portugal

Abstract

The study evaluated the ECMWF model ability in forecasting lightning in Portugal during four fire seasons (2019–2022). The evaluation was made based on lightning data from the national lightning detector network, which was aggregated into resolutions of 0.5° and 1° over 3 h periods and analyzed from statistical indices using two contingency tables. The results showed that the model overestimates the lightning occurrence, with a BIAS greater than 1, with a success rate of 57.7% (49%) for a horizontal resolution of 1° (0.5°). The objective analysis was complemented by the spatial lightning distribution analysis, which indicated a time lag between the two data, i.e., the model started predicting lightning before its occurrence and finished the prediction earlier. Furthermore, such analysis revealed the lightning distribution being consistent with some weather patterns. The findings of this study provide insights into the applicability of the ECMWF lightning forecast data in the context of forecasting natural forest fires in Portugal.

Funder

European Union

FCT-Foundation for Science and Technology

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

Reference58 articles.

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3. Couto, F.T., Santos, F.L.M., Campos, C., Andrade, N., Purificação, C., and Salgado, R. (2022). Is Portugal Starting to Burn All Year Long? The Transboundary Fire in January 2022. Atmosphere, 13.

4. San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Durrant, T., Boca, R., Maianti, P., Libertà, G., Oom, D., Branco, A., De Rigo, D., Ferrari, D., and Roglia, E. (2023). Advance Report on Forest Fires in Europe, Middle East and North Africa 2022, Publications Office of the European Union. Available online: https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/500b8dfa-de5e-11ed-a05c-01aa75ed71a1/language-en.

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