Towards Sustainable Mobility: Assessing the Benefits and Implications of Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle Bans and Battery Electric Vehicle Uptake in Qatar

Abstract

The global shift towards sustainable transportation, primarily through vehicle electrification, is critical in addressing climate change. Qatar presents a knowledge gap with specific challenges and opportunities in this transition. This study calculates the potential reduction in CO2-eq, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions resulting from substituting Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICEVs) with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in Qatar, considering ICEV ban scenarios in 2030, 2035, and 2040, alongside five policy pathways. A Vehicle Stock Model (VSM) simulates Qatar’s fleet evolution from 2022 to 2050, focusing on the vehicle’s operational phase. An ICEV ban in 2030 would result in a 34% cumulative emission reduction in road transport between 2022 and 2050 compared with the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. For NOx and PM2.5, cumulative emissions for the 2030 ICEV ban pathways are approximately 20% and 9% lower, respectively, compared with BAU. This study underscores the necessity of localising environmental strategies to meet Qatar’s specific needs and climate commitments, where results indicate significant emission reductions are possible through BEVs.