Gridded Assessment of Mainland China’s Solar Energy Resources Using the Typical Meteorological Year Method and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset

Abstract

The National Standard of China has recommended the typical meteorological year (TMY) method for assessing solar energy resources. Compared with the widely adopted multi-year averaging (MYA) methods, the TMY method can consider the year-to-year variations of weather conditions and characterize solar radiation under climatological weather conditions. However, there are very few TMY-based solar energy assessments on the scale of China. On the national scale, the difference between the TMY and MYA methods, the requirement of the data record length, and the impacts of the selection of meteorological variables on the TMY-based assessment are still unclear. This study aims to fill these gaps by assessing mainland China’s solar energy resources using the TMY method and China Meteorological Forcing Dataset. The results show that the data record length could significantly influence annual total solar radiation estimation when the record length is shorter than 30 years. Whereas, the estimation becomes stable when the length is greater or equal to 30 years, suggesting a thirty-year data record is preferred. The difference between the MYA and TMY methods is exhibited primarily in places with modest or low abundance of solar radiation. The difference is nearly independent of the examined data record lengths, hinting at the role of regional-specific weather characteristics. The TMY and MYA methods differ more pronounced when assessing the seasonal stability grade. A total of 7.4% of the area of China experiences a downgrade from the TMY relative to the MYA methods, while a 3.15% area experiences an upgrade. The selection of the meteorological variables has a notable impact on the TMY-based assessment. Among the three meteorological variables examined, wind speed has the most considerable impact on both the annual total and seasonal stability, dew point has the second most significant impact, and air temperature has the least. The results are useful for guiding future research on solar energy assessment in China and could be helpful for solar energy development planning.