Could Gwadar Port in Pakistan Be a New Gateway? A Network Simulation Approach in the Context of the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

Central Asia (CA), comprising six independent countries and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China (XUAR), is an archetypal landlocked region suffering from poor access to global markets. Possible gateway seaports for CA cargo are scattered across the Eurasian continent, and access requires long-haul transport. Thanks to their shorter hinterland transport distances, Pakistani ports, including Gwadar Port, which has drawn attention in the context of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, are investing a substantial amount in their infrastructure, with the aim of becoming the new gateway seaport for CA cargo. This paper aims to analyse the market potential of Gwadar Port and other Pakistani ports as gateways of the cargo to/from CA countries, including China and Russia, applying a two-layered network assignment model, developed from the perspective of shippers, under six scenario conditions. To overcome the lack of data availability in the region, surveys and interviews were conducted. The simulation results, based on several policy scenarios concerning the use of Gwadar Port, with hinterland connections and reduced border barriers, show that the port could handle a sustainable number of containers. If the hinterland rail network effectively connected the port to the CA countries via the XUAR, Pakistani ports could become gateways for CA cargo.