Unit-Based Emissions Inventory for Electric Power Systems in Kuwait: Current Status and Future Predictions

Abstract

Obtaining accurate estimates of emissions from electric power systems is essential for predicting air quality and evaluating the effectiveness of any future control technologies. This paper aimed to develop unit-based emissions inventories for electric power systems in Kuwait using different parameters, including fuel specifications and consumption, combustion technology and its efficiency, unit capacity, and boiler type. The study also estimated the future emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, CO2, and PM10 up to the year 2030 using a multivariate regression model in addition to predicting future energy demand. The results showed that annual (2010–2015) emissions of all air pollutants, excluding SO2 and PM10, increased over the study period. CO had the greatest increase of 41.9%, whereas SO2 levels decreased the most by 13% over the 2010 levels, due to the replacement of heavy fuel oil. Energy consumption in 2015 stood at approximately 86 PJ, with natural gas, gas oil, crude oil, and heavy fuel oil making up 51.2%, 10.7%, 3.1%, and 35%, respectively. Energy demand was projected to grow at an annualized rate of 2.8% by 2030 compared to 2015 levels. The required installed capacity to meet this demand was estimated to be approximately 21.8 GW (a 34% increase in capacity compared to 2015 levels). The projected emission rates showed that, of the five air pollutants, SO2 and PM10 are expected to decrease by 2030 by 34% and 11%, respectively. However, peak monthly emissions of SO2 would still only be 14% lower compared to the 2015 monthly average. In contrast, emission levels are projected to increase by 34.3%, 54.8%, and 71.8% for CO2, NOx, and CO, respectively, by 2030 compared to 2015 levels. Accordingly, a more ambitious target of renewables penetration needs to be adopted to reduce emission levels going forward.