Artificial-Intelligence-Driven Algorithms for Predicting Response to Corticosteroid Treatment in Patients with Post-Acute COVID-19

Abstract

Pulmonary fibrosis is one of the most severe long-term consequences of COVID-19. Corticosteroid treatment increases the chances of recovery; unfortunately, it can also have side effects. Therefore, we aimed to develop prediction models for a personalized selection of patients benefiting from corticotherapy. The experiment utilized various algorithms, including Logistic Regression, k-NN, Decision Tree, XGBoost, Random Forest, SVM, MLP, AdaBoost, and LGBM. In addition easily human-interpretable model is presented. All algorithms were trained on a dataset consisting of a total of 281 patients. Every patient conducted an examination at the start and three months after the post-COVID treatment. The examination comprised a physical examination, blood tests, functional lung tests, and an assessment of health state based on X-ray and HRCT. The Decision tree algorithm achieved balanced accuracy (BA) of 73.52%, ROC-AUC of 74.69%, and 71.70% F1 score. Other algorithms achieving high accuracy included Random Forest (BA 70.00%, ROC-AUC 70.62%, 67.92% F1 score) and AdaBoost (BA 70.37%, ROC-AUC 63.58%, 70.18% F1 score). The experiments prove that information obtained during the initiation of the post-COVID-19 treatment can be used to predict whether the patient will benefit from corticotherapy. The presented predictive models can be used by clinicians to make personalized treatment decisions.