Using an Artificial Intelligence Approach to Predict the Adverse Effects and Prognosis of Tuberculosis

Abstract

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and a major cause of ill health. Without treatment, the mortality rate of TB is approximately 50%; with treatment, most patients with TB can be cured. However, anti-TB drug treatments may result in many adverse effects. Therefore, it is important to detect and predict these adverse effects early. Our study aimed to build models using an artificial intelligence/machine learning approach to predict acute hepatitis, acute respiratory failure, and mortality after TB treatment. Materials and Methods: Adult patients (age ≥ 20 years) who had a TB diagnosis and received treatment from January 2004 to December 2021 were enrolled in the present study. Thirty-six feature variables were used to develop the predictive models with AI. The data were randomly stratified into a training dataset for model building (70%) and a testing dataset for model validation (30%). These algorithms included XGBoost, random forest, MLP, light GBM, logistic regression, and SVM. Results: A total of 2248 TB patients in Chi Mei Medical Center were included in the study; 71.7% were males, and the other 28.3% were females. The mean age was 67.7 ± 16.4 years. The results showed that our models using the six AI algorithms all had a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) in predicting acute hepatitis, respiratory failure, and mortality, and the AUCs ranged from 0.920 to 0.766, 0.884 to 0.797, and 0.834 to 0.737, respectively. Conclusions: Our AI models were good predictors and can provide clinicians with a valuable tool to detect the adverse prognosis in TB patients early.