Prognostic Nomograms for Hospital Survival and Transplant-Free Survival of Patients with Hepatorenal Syndrome: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Abstract

Hepatorenal syndrome (HRS) is a life-threatening complication of cirrhosis with a poor prognosis. To develop novel and effective nomograms which could numerically predict both the hospital survival and transplant-free survival of HRS, we retrospectively enrolled a cohort of 149 patients. A backward stepwise method based on the smallest Akaike information criterion value was applied to select the covariates to be included in the Cox proportional hazards models. The Harrell C-index, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier score, and Kaplan–Meier curves with the log-rank test were used to assess nomograms. The bootstrapping method with 1000 resamples was performed for internal validation. The nomogram predicting hospital survival included prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, Child–Pugh class, and baseline serum creatinine. The C-index was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.65–0.78), and the adjusted C-index was 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66–0.79). The nomogram predicting transplant-free survival included sex, prothrombin activity, HRS clinical pattern, model for end-stage liver disease–Na score, and peak serum creatinine. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69–0.79), and the adjusted C-index was 0.74 (95% CI, 0.68–0.79). The AUC and Brier score at 15, 30, and 45 days calculated from the hospital survival nomogram and those at 6, 12, and 18 months calculated from the transplant-free survival nomogram revealed good predictive ability. The two models can be used to identify patients at high risk of HRS and promote early intervention treatment.