Optimization of Case Definitions for Sensitivity as a Preventive Strategy—A Modelling Exemplified with Rapid Diagnostic Test-Based Prevention of Sexual HIV Transmission

Abstract

In clinical studies, case definitions are usually designed to optimally match the desired clinical state, because lacking specificity is associated with a risk of bias regarding the study outcome. In preventive medicine, however, high sensitivity is sometimes considered as more critical in order not to overlook infectious individuals, because the latter may be associated with ongoing spread of a transmittable disease. Accordingly, this work was focused on a theoretical model on how the sensitivity of case definitions can be optimized by adding clinical symptoms to diagnostic results for preventive purposes, if the associated reduction in specificity is considered as acceptable. The model was exemplified with an analysis on whether and in how far exposure risk can be reduced by the inclusion of observable symptoms during seroconversion syndrome in case of rapid diagnostic test-based prevention of sexual HIV transmission. The approach provided a high level of safety (negative predictive values close to 1) for the price of a considerably number of false positives (positive predictive values < 0.01 for some subpopulations). When applying such a sensitivity-optimized screening as a “diagnostics as prevention” strategy, the advantages of excellent negative predictive values need to be cautiously balanced against potential undesirable consequences of low positive predictive values.