Landscape Management through Change Processes Monitoring in Iran

Abstract

The presented research investigated and predicted landscape change processes (LCPs) in the Talar watershed, northern Iran. The Land Change Modeler was used for change analysis, transition potential modeling, and prediction of land use/land cover (LULC) map. The evaluation of projected LULC map was performed by comparing the real and predicted LULC maps for the reference year, 2014. Landscape metrics and change processes were investigated for the period 1989–2014 and for exploring the situation in 2030. Results illustrated that the increase in agricultural land and residential areas took place at the expense of forest and rangeland. The distance from forests was the most sensitive parameter for modeling the transition potentials. The modelling of the LULC change projected the number of patches, the landscape shape index, interspersion and juxtaposition index, and edge density, Euclidean nearest-neighbor distance, and area-weighted shape index will amount to 65.3, 7.63, 20.1, 8.77, −1.35, and 0.61% as compared to 2014, respectively. Our findings indicated that the type of change processes that occurred was not entirely the same in 1989–2000 and 2000–2014. In addition, change processes in the creation of dry farming, orchard, and residential classes, attrition of forest and rangeland categories, and dissection in irrigated farming are projected. The dynamics of landscape metrics and change processes combined in one analytical framework can facilitate understanding and detection of the relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern. The finding of current research will provide a roadmap for improved LULC management and planning in the Talar watershed, southern coast of the Caspian Sea.