Fasting Triglycerides in the Upper Normal Range Are Independently Associated with an Increased Risk of Diabetes Mortality in a Large Representative US Population

Abstract

The association between normal-range triglyceride levels and diabetes mortality remains unclear. This cohort study aimed to elucidate this relationship by examining 19,010 US adult participants with fasting serum triglycerides below 150 mg/dL. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Participants were followed up for a mean of 15.3 years, during which 342 diabetes deaths were recorded. A 1 natural log unit increase in triglycerides was associated with a 57% higher risk of diabetes mortality (adjusted HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.04–2.38). Comparable results were obtained when triglycerides were analyzed in quartiles. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis identified an optimal triglyceride cutoff of 94.5 mg/dL for diabetes mortality; individuals with triglyceride levels above this threshold faced a greater risk of diabetes mortality (adjusted HR, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.12–1.83). Further investigation revealed a positive association between normal triglyceride levels and all-cause mortality, though no association was observed between normal triglycerides and mortality from hypertension or cardiovascular disease. In conclusion, elevated triglyceride levels within the normal range were associated with an increased risk of diabetes mortality. Individuals with triglyceride levels of 95 mg/dL or higher may require vigilant monitoring for diabetes and its associated complications.