An Objective and Robust Bayes Factor for the Hypothesis Test One Sample and Two Population Means

Abstract

It has been over 100 years since the discovery of one of the most fundamental statistical tests: the Student’s t test. However, reliable conventional and objective Bayesian procedures are still essential for routine practice. In this work, we proposed an objective and robust Bayesian approach for hypothesis testing for one-sample and two-sample mean comparisons when the assumption of equal variances holds. The newly proposed Bayes factors are based on the intrinsic and Berger robust prior. Additionally, we introduced a corrected version of the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), denoted BIC-TESS, which is based on the effective sample size (TESS), for comparing two population means. We studied our developed Bayes factors in several simulation experiments for hypothesis testing. Our methodologies consistently provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis in the case of equal means and variances. Finally, we applied the methodology to the original Gosset sleep data, concluding strong evidence favoring the hypothesis that the average sleep hours differed between the two treatments. These methodologies exhibit finite sample consistency and demonstrate consistent qualitative behavior, proving reasonably close to each other in practice, particularly for moderate to large sample sizes.