Fractal-Based Modeling and Spatial Analysis of Urban Form and Growth: A Case Study of Shenzhen in China

Abstract

Fractal dimension curves of urban growth can be modeled with sigmoid functions, including logistic function and quadratic logistic function. Different types of logistic functions indicate different spatial dynamics. The fractal dimension curves of urban growth in Western countries follow the common logistic function, while the fractal dimension growth curves of cities in northern China follow the quadratic logistic function. Now, we want to investigate whether other Chinese cities, especially cities in South China, follow the same rules of urban evolution and attempt to analyze the reasons. This paper is devoted to exploring the fractals and fractal dimension properties of the city of Shenzhen in southern China. The urban region is divided into four subareas using ArcGIS technology, the box-counting method is adopted to extract spatial datasets, and the least squares regression method is employed to estimate fractal parameters. The results show that (1) the urban form of Shenzhen city has a clear fractal structure, but fractal dimension values of different subareas are different; (2) the fractal dimension growth curves of all the four study areas can only be modeled by the common logistic function, and the goodness of fit increases over time; (3) the peak of urban growth in Shenzhen had passed before 1986 and the fractal dimension growth is approaching its maximum capacity. It can be concluded that the urban form of Shenzhen bears characteristics of multifractals and the fractal structure has been becoming better, gradually, through self-organization, but its land resources are reaching the limits of growth. The fractal dimension curves of Shenzhen’s urban growth are similar to those of European and American cities but differ from those of cities in northern China. This suggests that there are subtle different dynamic mechanisms of city development between northern and southern China.