Discrepancies between Global Forest Net Primary Productivity Estimates Derived from MODIS and Forest Inventory Data and Underlying Factors

Abstract

The net primary productivity (NPP) of a forest is an important indicator of its potential for the provision of ecosystem services such as timber, carbon, and biodiversity. However, accurately and consistently quantifying global forest NPP remains a challenge in practice. We converted carbon stock changes using the Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) data and carbon losses associated with disturbances and timber removals into an NPP equivalent measurement (FRA NPP*) and compared it with the NPP derived from the MODIS satellite data (MOD17 NPP) for the world’s forests. We found statistically significant differences between the two NPP estimates, with the FRA NPP* being lower than the MOD17 NPP; the differences were correlated with forest cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and GDP per capita in countries, and may also stem from the NPP estimation methods and scopes. While the former explicitly accounts for carbon losses associated with timber removals and disturbances, the latter better reflects the principles of photosynthesis. The discrepancies between the two NPP estimates increase in countries with a low income or low forest cover, calling for enhancing their forest resource assessment capacity. By identifying the discrepancies and underlying factors, we also provide new insights into the relationships between the MOD17 NPP and global forest carbon stock estimates, motivating and guiding future research to improve the robustness of quantifying global forest NPP and carbon sequestration potential.