Disappearance and Re-Emergence of Influenza during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Association with Infection Control Measures

Abstract

During the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the influenza virus had a very low prevalence, and in many areas, outbreaks were almost non-existent. In this study, the associations between infection control measures taken for COVID-19 and the global disappearance of the influenza virus were investigated. The detection rate of influenza from baseline was investigated during four seasons (12 weeks from epidemiological week 49 in 2020 and 2021 and 12 weeks from epidemiological week 23 in 2020 and 2021) in each country participating in the surveillance system of the World Health Organization. Three measures of infection control: mask use ratio, social distancing index (an index of human mobility and physical distance obligations), and an index of stringency of measures taken by authorities were studied. In mid-2020, most countries analyzed had high levels of infection control measures, and in most countries, influenza was drastically reduced compared to previous years. Multiple regression analyses compared the study data with data from other seasons. There was an association between high mask use with low influenza detection in all three remaining seasons, an association between a low social distancing index (low mobility and more social contact obligations) with a low influenza detection rate in two seasons, and a marginal significant association of high stringency index with a low influenza detection rate(in 2020-end-seasons). These results support the notion that seasonal influenza is controllable through effective preventive measures, especially those of mask use and human social contact, and these measures should be recommended during future waves of novel influenza virus infection.