A Head/Tail Breaks-Based Approach to Characterizing Space-Time Risks of COVID-19 Epidemic in China’s Cities

Abstract

The novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) pandemic has caused enormous impacts around the world. Characterizing the risk dynamics for urgent epidemics such as COVID-19 is of great benefit to epidemic control and emergency management. This article presents a novel approach to characterizing the space-time risks of the COVID-19 epidemic. We analyzed the heavy-tailed distribution and spatial hierarchy of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 367 cities from 20 January to 12 April 2020, and population density data for 2019, and modelled two parameters, COVID-19 confirmed cases and population density, to measure the risk value of each city and assess the epidemic from the perspective of spatial and temporal changes. The evolution pattern of high-risk areas was assessed from a spatial and temporal perspective. The number of high-risk cities decreased from 57 in week 1 to 6 in week 12. The results show that the risk measurement model based on the head/tail breaks approach can describe the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the risk of COVID-19, and can better predict the risk trend of future epidemics in each city and identify the risk of future epidemics even during low incidence periods. Compared with the traditional risk assessment method model, it pays more attention to the differences in the spatial level of each city and provides a new perspective for the assessment of the risk level of epidemic transmission. It has generality and flexibility and provides a certain reference for the prevention of infectious diseases as well as a theoretical basis for government implementation strategies.