Affiliation:
1. School of Marine Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
Abstract
Existing research has proven the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) due to global warming. However, the sea bottom temperature (SBT) may exhibit different characteristics in various regional seas. The East China Shelf Seas (ECSSs), which are important shelf seas in the Western Pacific, hold ecological significance when analyzing their SBT variations in a warming future. This article investigates both the interannual and interdecadal SBT variations from 2006 to 2100, utilizing the projection results from phase 5 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) sponsored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We conducted an analysis of the interdecadal variation by comparing the SBTs from the 2030s, 2060s, and 2090s to the SBT observed in the 2010s. Our findings reveal a significant increase in SBT in the ECSSs. By 2100, the region is projected to experience enhanced warming of 1.18 °C. The springtime warming intensity of the Bohai Sea, reaching 1.92 °C, can be twice the rate of global ocean warming. The outer shelf of the ECSSs also exhibits significant increases in SBT. Through an analysis of the correlation between SBT and ocean currents, we investigate the potential mechanisms behind these observations. This paper provides insights into future SBT variations from both an interannual and interdecadal perspective, explaining the causes and the projected increase in environmental stresses on the benthic ecosystem over the next eighty years.
Funder
National Key Research and Development Program of China
Municipal Nature Science Foundation of Tianjin
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Subject
Ocean Engineering,Water Science and Technology,Civil and Structural Engineering
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