Trends, Variability, and Seasonality of Maximum Annual Daily Precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin, Poland

Abstract

The aim of this study was to detect trends in maximum annual daily precipitation in the Upper Vistula Basin. We analyzed data from 51 weather stations between 1971 and 2014. Then we used the Mann–Kendall test to detect monotonical trends of the precipitation for three significance levels: 1, 5, and 10%. Our analysis of weather conditions helped us describe the mechanism behind the formation of maximum annual daily precipitation. To analyze precipitation seasonality, we also used Colwell indices. Our study identified a significant trend of the highest daily precipitation for the assumed significance levels (0.01, 0.05, 0.1) for 22% of the investigated weather stations at different elevations. The significant trends found were positive and an increase in precipitation is expected. From 1971 to 2014, the maximum daily total precipitation most often occurred in the summer half-year, i.e., from May until September. These months included a total of 88% of days with the highest daily precipitation. The predictability index for the highest total precipitation within the area was high and exceeded 5%. It was markedly affected by the coefficient of constancy (C) and to a lesser degree by the seasonality index (M). Our analysis demonstrated a convergence of the Colwell indices and frequency of cyclonic situation and, therefore, confirmed their usability in the analysis of precipitation seasonality.