Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Near and the Far Future Streamflow in the Bocheongcheon Basin of Geumgang River, South Korea

Abstract

Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy.