Research on Wind Power Project Risk Management Based on Structural Equation and Catastrophe Theory

Abstract

Wind power projects are a crucial step towards achieving the objectives of “carbon neutrality” and “carbon peak” because they can improve the energy crisis and contribute towards environmental pollution reduction. However, the risks of wind power projects cannot be ignored, and the success of the design phase can affect the risks and benefits of wind power projects throughout their life cycle. This paper first proposes causality hypotheses for four types of risk factors in wind power projects: policy, economy, technology, and construction. It constructs a structural equation model for wind power project risk factors and then tests and modifies the model. Then, based on the latent variables of policy, economy, technology, and construction, and the relevant explicit variables, the risk index evaluation system of the wind power project design phase is constructed. The risk assessment catastrophe model of wind power projects is further established, and it is used to evaluate the risk of the K wind power project in the design phase. The risk assessment can identify the overall risk and main risk sources in wind power projects in the design phase and provide countermeasures for effectively controlling risks in wind power projects in China.