Analysis of Current and Future Forest Disturbances Dynamics in Central Europe

Author:

Gejdoš MilošORCID,Michajlová Katarína

Abstract

The area of forests and the standing volume per hectare are constantly increasing in Europe, and this trend is expected to continue for several more decades; the aim of this paper was to provide an empirical overview of the development of disturbances in selected countries of central Europe and based on this overview to empirically model and predict the development and intensity of disturbances in the future. Statistical methods (Holt–Winters) and predictive risk models of the growth simulator SIBYLA were used for prediction. From the statistically predicted values by this method, it follows that, in the next three years, it is possible to assume that stagnation will result in declining volumes of incidental fellings in all countries. Forecast from the growth simulator SIBYLA shows a substantial increase in the predicted volume of incidental fellings for the years 2021 and 2022, compared with 2020. The volumes of incidental fellings should grow most significantly, especially in Germany, Poland, and Austria. The performed analysis and predictions suggest that the peak of wood volumes damaged by disturbances in the next decade will probably be reached already in the reports for 2021 or 2022. However, the risk of disturbances remains high, and other large-scale area disturbances in forest ecosystems cannot be completely ruled out.

Funder

Ministry of Education, Science, Research and Sport of the Slovak Republic

Slovak Research and Development Agency

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Forestry

Reference54 articles.

1. Forest Disturbance Types and Current Analogs for Historical Disturbance-Independent Forests

2. Disturbancie v Lesných Ekosystémoch a Možnosti Ich Kvantifikácie a Predikcie Pre Potreby Lesného Hospodárstva [Disturbances in Forest Ecosystems and Possibilities for Its Quantification and Prediction for Forest Management Needs];Merganič,2020

3. Forest disturbances under climate change

4. Impacts of Natural Disturbances on the Development of European Forest Resources: Application of Model Approaches from Tree and Stand Levels to Large-Scale Scenarios;Schelhaas,2008

5. Long‐term forest structure and regeneration after wildfire in Russian Karelia

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3