Estimates of Daily PM2.5 Exposure in Beijing Using Spatio-Temporal Kriging Model

Abstract

Excessive exposure to ambient (outdoor) air pollution may greatly increase the incidences of respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Accurate reports of the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of daily PM2.5 exposure can effectively prevent and reduce the harm caused to humans. Based on the daily average concentration data of PM2.5 in Beijing in May 2014 and the spatio-temporal kriging (STK) theory, we selected the optimal STK fitting model and compared the spatial-temporal prediction accuracy of PM2.5 using the STK method and ordinary kriging (OK) method. We also reveal the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the daily PM2.5 exposure in Beijing. The results show the following: (1) The fitting error of the Bilonick model (BM) model which is the smallest (0.00648), and the fitting effect of the prediction model of STK is the best for daily PM2.5 exposure. (2) The cross-examination results show that the STK model (RMSE = 8.90) has significantly lower fitting errors than the OK model (RMSE = 10.70), so its simulation prediction accuracy is higher. (3) According to the interpolation of the STK model, the daily exposure of PM2.5 in Beijing in May 2014 has good continuity in both time and space. The overall air quality is good, and overall the spatial distribution is low in the north and high in the south, with the highest concentration in the southwestern region. (4) There is a certain degree of spatial heterogeneity in the cumulative duration at the good, moderate, and polluted grades of China National Standard. The areas with the longest cumulative duration at the good, moderate and polluted grades are in the north, southeast, and southwest of the study area, respectively.