Trends in Forest Fire Occurrence in the Ilmensky Nature Reserve, Southern Urals, Russia, between 1948 and 2014

Abstract

We analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of 1083 forest fires within the Ilmensky Reserve (Southern Urals, Russia) over 1948–2014. We observed a significant increase in the number of forest fires over the studied period, with the locations of the most frequently burned sections of the reserve changing over time. The average number of fires over the whole period increased by a factor of 1.9; there were 0.41 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1948–1970, there were 0.58 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1971–1990, and there were 0.77 fires per compartment per 10 years in 1991–2014. In parallel, the spatial pattern of ignitions became more aggregated. The fire frequency increased across the reserve, with the most pronounced change being observed along the reserve borders. Human-related fires dominate the modern fire activity within the Ilmensky Reserve, which is modulated by the local conditions.