Representative and Morphological Waves along the Adriatic Italian Coast in a Changing Climate

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of climate change on coastal dynamics along the Adriatic Italian coast, with reference to the period 2021–2050 considering the IPCC RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The wave datasets are obtained by forcing a spectral wave model with ERA5 wind fields corrected with a procedure that makes them suitable for the investigated semi-enclosed basin where local meteorological events occur at scales of a few kilometers. The wave climate changes between the historic run (1981–2010) and the future scenarios are studied in terms of mean values, percentile and extreme waves in 120 virtual buoys along the coasts. Moreover, a morphological equivalent wave is computed for all the datasets to highlight the consequences of climate change on coastal sediment transport. Along the Adriatic Italian coast, a small decrease in the significant wave heights is found, both for mean and extreme values, and the sediment transport is reduced. However, significant deviations along the coast are highlighted and the longshore sediment transport even reverses its direction in some locations for the future scenarios.