Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Geographical Distribution Patterns of Luculia pinceana Hook. f. since the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract

In this study, we utilized 76 natural distribution points and six environmental variables to establish a detailed species distribution prediction process for Luculia pinceana Hook. f. Our aim was to explore the potential distribution patterns of L. pinceana since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and its response to climate change, providing a scientific basis for conservation strategies and the suitable introduction of its wild populations. This model enabled the prediction of L. pinceana’s geographical distribution patterns across five temporal phases: the LGM, the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and two future scenarios. Additionally, the model pinpointed the dominant environmental factors influencing these distribution patterns. The results indicate the following: (1) The temperature annual range (bio7), the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), and the precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) are the dominant environmental factors that determine the distribution of L. pinceana. In areas where bio7 is less than 22.27 °C, bio6 is above 3.34 °C, and bio13 exceeds 307.65 mm, the suitability for L. pinceana is highest. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the highly suitable area of L. pinceana accounts for 64 × 104 km2, which accounts for half of the total suitable area. The suitable habitats for L. pinceana are concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Guangxi, southern Nyingchi in Tibet, and the coastal areas of South China. (3) During the LGM and the MH, the suitable habitats for L. pinceana were essentially consistent with the current scenarios, with no significant southward shift in distribution. This lack of a major southward migration during the LGM could be attributed to the species finding refuge in situ in mountainous areas. (4) Under various future emission scenarios, the suitable habitat area for L. pinceana is expected to experience significant expansion, generally shifting towards the northwest and higher latitudes. The anticipated global warming in the future is likely to provide more favorable conditions for the survival of L. pinceana. It is recommended that the introduction follows the direction of centroid migration, facilitated by vegetation management, and it has the ecological and economic benefits of L. pinceana to a greater extent.