Abstract
Since the outbreak of COVID-19 and the American decoupling policy, the global value chains (GVCs) have been switched to regional GVCs, and, in the worst case, are subject to a potential alteration of reversing the GVCs, ultimately entailing a severe impact on international trade and the global energy market. This paper applies a quantitative approach using a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the effects of the reverse GVC factors on the global economy, trade, and energy market. These reverse GVC factors will decrease the global GDP, and such effect will bring a greater influence on both China as well as the United States, which is pursuing decoupling. The increased trade costs due to these factors will reduce the GVC indices, mostly in ASEAN by 0.2~1.15%, followed by Korea, Japan and China. Surprisingly, the GVC index in the United States is expected to be strengthened due to the enhanced GVC with its allies such as Canada and Mexico. In China, the use of oil, gas and petroleum is expected to decrease by around 10%, and similar effects are expected in Korea and the EU. Among the world’s major energy producers, it is estimated that the US will reduce energy exports by 16–62% depending on the energy source, and the Middle East and Russia will significantly reduce their gas exports. The global energy market is shrinking, but in particular, the international gas market is expected to decrease by 27.3~38.6%.
Subject
Energy (miscellaneous),Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment,Electrical and Electronic Engineering,Control and Optimization,Engineering (miscellaneous)
Reference83 articles.
1. Could the Coronavirus Spur Automation and Reverse Globalization?
https://iap.unido.org/articles/could-coronavirus-spur-automation-and-reverse-globalization
2. Trade Wars in The Global Value Chain Era. VoxEU.org
https://voxeu.org/article/trade-wars-global-value-chain-era
3. International production and the digital economy;Bolwijn,2019
4. Accelerating Trends: Assessing the Supply Chain in a Post-Pandemic World
https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2020/09/accelerating-trends-supply-chain-post-pandemic
5. The Robots are Coming for Garment Workers. That’s Good for the U.S., Bad for Poor Countries
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-robots-are-coming-for-garment-workers-thats-good-for-the-u-s-bad-for-poor-countries-1518797631
Cited by
5 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献