Climate Adaptation Heuristic Planning Support System (HPSS): Green-Blue Strategies to Support the Ecological Transition of Historic Centres

Abstract

The issue of climate has posed major and urgent challenges for the global community. The European Green Deal sets out a new growth strategy aimed at turning the European Union into a just and prosperous society, with a modern, resource-efficient, and competitive economy, which will no longer generate net greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Cities in this context are committed on several fronts to rapid adaptation to improve their resilience capacity. The historic centre is the most vulnerable part of a city, with a reduced capacity for adaptation, but also the densest of values, which increase the complexity of the challenge. This study proposes an integrated tool, Heuristic Planning Support System (HPSS), aimed at exploring green-blue strategies for the historic centre. The tool is integrated with classic Planning Support System (PSS), a decision process conducted from the perspective of heuristic approach and Geographic Information System (GIS). It comprises modules for technical assessment, environmental assessment Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), economic assessment Life Cycle Cost (LCC), Life Cycle Revenues (LCR), and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCFA) extended to the life cycle of specific interventions, the Multi-Attribute Value Theory (MAVT) for the assessment of energy, environmental, identity, landscape, and economic values. The development of a tool to support the ecological transition of historic centres stems from the initiative of researchers at the University of Catania, who developed it based on the preferences expressed by a group of decision makers, that is, a group of local administrators, scholars, and professionals. The proposed tool supports the exploration of green-blue strategies identified by decision makers and the development of the plan for the historic district of Borgata di Santa Lucia in Syracuse.