Exploring Changes in Land Use and Landscape Ecological Risk in Key Regions of the Belt and Road Initiative Countries

Abstract

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has revealed that it is necessary to strengthen research on land use and land cover change (LUCC) and ecological risk in key regions of countries around the world. In this study, the spatiotemporal characteristics of LUCC in the five capitals of Central Asian countries within the BRI were analyzed. Based on the grid scale, a landscape pattern index was introduced to quantitatively evaluate the landscape ecological risk levels of the five capitals. The results showed the following: first, the components of land use types in the five capitals have different structural characteristics, which are mainly grassland, unused land, and cultivated land. The landscape types that changed significantly were water and unused land, while the construction land area showed a trend of continuous increase. Second, different capitals have different land-use transfer patterns. Akmola State is mainly converted from cultivated land to grassland; Chuy State is mainly converted from forest land to grassland; Dushanbe and Tashkent City are mainly converted from grassland to forestland; and Ahal State is mainly converted from grassland to unused land. Third, the overall landscape ecological risks of the five capitals were low. Akmola State had the largest proportion of lowest ecological risk areas, whereas Chuy State and Dushanbe City had an increasing trend of highest ecological risk areas. The level of ecological risk in Tashkent remained stable during the study period, and the highest ecological risk areas in Ahal State decreased to 49,227.86 km2. This study has enriched the research results of land use change and landscape ecological risk assessment of countries within the BRI and can provide a research reference for these countries and regions to achieve ecological sustainable development and strengthen ecosystem management.