Evaluation of Future Impacts of Climate Change, CO2, and Land Use Cover Change on Global Net Primary Productivity Using a Processed Model

Abstract

Few studies have focused on the combined impact of climate change, CO2, and land-use cover change (LUCC), especially the evaluation of the impact of LUCC on net primary productivity (NPP) in the future. In this study, we simulated the overall NPP change trend from 2010 to 2100 and its response to climatic factors, CO2 concentration, and LUCC conditions under three typical emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). (1) Under the predicted global pattern, NPP showed an increasing trend, with the most prominent variation at the end of the century. The increasing trend is mainly caused by the positive effect of CO2 on NPP. However, the increasing trend of LUCC has only a small positive effect. (2) Under the RCP 8.5 scenario, from 2090 to 2100, CO2 has the most significant positive impact on tropical areas, reaching 8.328 Pg C Yr−1. Under the same conditions, climate change has the greatest positive impact on the northern high latitudes (1.175 Pg C Yr−1), but it has the greatest negative impact on tropical areas, reaching −4.842 Pg C Yr−1. (3) The average contribution rate of LUCC to NPP was 6.14%. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, LUCC made the largest positive contribution on NPP (0.542 Pg C Yr−1) globally from 2010 to 2020.