Future Scenarios for Land Use in Chile: Identifying Drivers of Change and Impacts over Protected Area System

Abstract

Chile is a country that depends on the extraction and export of its natural resources. This phenomenon has exacerbated different processes of transformation and disturbance of natural and human ecosystems. Land use change has become a key factor for the transformation of ecosystems, causing consequences for biodiversity conservation. In this study, current and future (2030, 2050 and 2080) land use categories were evaluated. Land use projections were analysed together with models of ecosystem distribution in Chile under different climate scenarios, to finally analyse different dynamics of land use change within the protected areas system. In all the scenarios evaluated, land use projections showed an increase in the areas of industrial forest plantations and urban areas and a decrease in natural and agricultural areas could be expected. In relation to ecosystem modeling, vegetational formations located in the center and south of the country could be expected to decrease, while vegetational formations in the north and center of the country could extend their surface area. Inside Chile’s protected area network, anthropic disturbances are currently undergoing expansion, which could have consequences for ecosystems and protected areas located in the central and central–south zones of Chile.